Killeens Financial

Disclaimer: I am a relative newcomer to Stocks and Shares. I offer these pages, not as an expert, but as a way of sharing my experience. I believe that I can help other newcomers to understand this world, so often expressed either in impenetrable jargon or in endless verbiage. I can also guide them to sites that I found most useful. If you want investment advice, however, I suggest you approach those who hold themselves out to be experts, e.g., brokers, online or traditional.

Stock Market Seasons

The weather on the Stock Market is something like the Irish weather: changeable and unpredictable. However, observed over a period of years, definite seasons are identifiable.

Month	Market Behaviour	Extra
January	Rises strongly	If the market fails to rise in January, it will be a Bear Market this year
February	Stalls or Falls
March of many weathers	Rises to new heights, Then falls back severely
April	Recovers the heights of March
May	"Sell in May and Go Away"	The founder of the Stock Traders Almanac, Yale Hirsch, discovered 39 years ago that nearly all gains in the market are made between Nov 1 and April 30. Not universally true, it is true for most stocks most of the time. The effect is exaggerated in recent years, because lots of stock traders follow his advice. By selling in May, they depress the market. Hirsch's almanac predicts whether the market is likely to rise or fall on every day of the year, based on what has happened on each date since 1953.
June	Doldrums	Tentative recoveries after May's decline, followed by continuation of the decline.
July	Mid season recovery	A mild recovery in mid July is often followed by a fall back in late July
August - September	Tentative ups and Stronger downs
October	Doldrums	Sometimes falls severely
November	Rises strongly
December	Continues November rise, but relaxes back for Christmas and New Year break

Good Times to Buy:

February, if and when the market has eased back

Late March or Early April, in between the March fall back and the April rally

Late June and Early July, before the mid season recovery of mid July

Last week of October

Betwen Christmas Eve and New Year's Day

Good Times to Sell:

Late January or Early February,- whenever the January Rally has come to an end and before the mid-Spring decline

Late March: after it has hit the heights, and before it has fallen back

Late July, after the rally and before prices fall back

Around 20 December, after the Nov-Dec rally and before the Christmas break

Back to Page 1

Killeens Financial

Stock Market Seasons

Month

Market Behaviour

Extra

Good Times to Buy:

Good Times to Sell: